With the market taking a turn for the worse yesterday, we’re going to look at how to find bearish options trade ideas using the Bear Put Spread Screener.
CBRE Group, Inc. CBRE, the global leader in real estate services, is gearing up to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings on Feb 15 before the bell. The company has been at the forefront of the industry, offering
Innospec Inc. IOSP recorded a profit of $37.8 million or $1.51 per share in fourth-quarter 2023, up from a profit of $25.5 million or $1.02 in the year-ago quarter.Barring one-time items, earnings came in at $1.84 per share, up fr
For Emmanuel Macron, more babies are vital to maintain France's national vigour. Italy's Georgia Meloni has made encouraging more Italian women to give birth a top priority.
Sonic Automotive (SAH) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.80 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.61 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recur
Scorpio Tankers (STNG) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.75 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.63 per share. This compares to earnings of $4.24 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recur
Axos Financial, Inc. AX announced an additional share repurchase program. Per the plan, the company is authorized to buy back up to $100 million worth of shares. There is no specific start or end date for the newly announced plan.
GrafTech International (EAF) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.27 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.21. This compares to earnings of $0.17 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-rec
Hewlett Packard Enterprise HPE and the University of Maryland have collaborated to equip the latter with HPE’s Aruba Networking Edge Services Platform. The networking solution will be placed across the university campus featuring
CVS Health’s CVS restructuring plan, intended to streamline and simplify the organization, looks impressive. However, reimbursement pressure remains a concern. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Parsons (PSN) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.63 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.51 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring item
As Treasury yields march higher, some investors are betting a resilient U.S. economy and moderating inflation can shield stocks from their deleterious effects this time around.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) reported its Q4 results last month, with revenues and earnings beating the street estimates. GE stock has seen a robust 11% rise this year, but we think it is now appropriately priced, and investors willing to enter will likely be well off waiting for
Yelp (NYSE: YELP), an online site for discovering local businesses ranging from bars, restaurants, and cafes, to hairdressers, spas, and gas stations, is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, February 15. We expect the stock to see little to no move
Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP), an online travel company providing booking for hotel reservations, transportation, lodging, travel experiences, and restaurants, is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, February 15. We expect Tripadvisor’s
F5 Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FFIV), a network hardware, software, and services provider, recently reported its Q1 fiscal 2024 results (fiscal ends in September), with top and bottom beating the street estimates. The company reported revenue of $693 million and an adjusted profit of $3.
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2023 results on Tuesday, February 13, 2024 (after market close). We expect AIG to outperform the consensus estimates. The insurance giant posted mixed results in the last quarter, with revenues missin
Simon Property Group stock (
NYSE:SPG
) has unleashed
a barrage of dividend increases, reinforcing its bull case. The world's largest retail REIT continues to post improving financials in the aftermath of the pandemic, resulting in multiple dividend hikes recently. In fact, the company closed Fiscal 2023 with record FFO/share (funds from operations per share, a cash-flow metric used by REITs), surpassing its pre-pandemic levels for the first time.
I believe the ongoing momentum is set to persist. Therefore, I remain bullish on SPG stock.
Full Post-COVID Recovery Drives Dividend Increases
After overcoming the challenges posed by the pandemic, which greatly affected retail REITs, including Simon Property, the company has experienced a remarkable rebound in occupancy levels. This, coupled with increased rental rates, has propelled Simon Property to achieve a complete recovery. Thus, the company has successfully implemented a series of substantial dividend increases, showcasing its resilience and financial strength post-pandemic.
To begin with, I believe it all starts with retailers feeling a heightened sense of confidence in consumer spending over the past few quarters. It seems that retailers' optimism is being fueled by several indicators pointing towards a reassuring "soft-landing" scenario. These include low unemployment and easing inflation. As a result, SPG has seen a significant upswing in occupancy levels, which landed at 95.8% at year-end – a noteworthy increase of 90 basis points compared to Fiscal 2022.
Simultaneously, seizing the substantial demand for its properties, Simon has pursued increasing rental rates, resulting in a base minimum rent (BMR) of $56.82 at the end of the year -- a 3.1% uptick from the previous year. This is one of the highest BMRs I have ever seen a retail REIT achieve, underscoring Simon Property Group's high-quality property portfolio.
The combination of rising occupancy and record base minimum rent levels led to total revenues for the year coming in at $5.66 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Interestingly, this brings SPG remarkably close to its pre-pandemic Fiscal 2019 revenue of $5.67 billion, signaling a full post-pandemic recovery.
SPG's bottom-line results were even more impressive, with funds from operations per share (FFO/share) for the year landing at $12.51, up from last year's $11.95 and setting a new record from 2019's $12.37.
To me, it's very impressive that Simon Property's profitability has rebounded with such vigor, considering that most REITs out there are currently feeling the negative effects of multi-decade-high interest rates. Being the largest REIT in the space, however, Simon has managed to leverage its high-quality portfolio to maintain an attractive credit profile.
In particular, while the REIT's average cost of debt did increase from a low of 3.03% in 2021 to 3.70% in 2023, it still remains at very competitive levels. Further, Simon's weighted average yield to maturity stood at 7.2 years at the end of 2023, meaning the company is more or less insulated from potentially harmful refinancings in the medium term.
Source: SPG's Q4 Supplemental Information
Seeing such a strong credit position and FFO/share reaching new highs, management has felt confident about continuing its aggressive post-pandemic dividend raises. As you can see in the bar chart below, Simon slashed its dividends to manage the underlying crisis once the pandemic hit. However, nine hikes have occurred thus far, with the most recent increase to $1.95, bringing the quarterly rate one step closer to its pre-pandemic level of $2.10.
Source: SEC filings, Author
It's also worth noting that SPG's payout ratio has improved substantially, as its FFO/share hit new records in FY2023, but the dividend is still hovering below its 2019 levels. The company's FFO payout ratio was 60% last year, down from 69% in 2019. I believe this should encourage management to keep raising its dividend comfortably in the coming quarters, which, combined with its already decent dividend yield of 5.4%, forms a compelling dividend growth case.
Another factor signaling that SPG can easily afford further dividend increases is that the REIT recently announced a
$2 billion stock buyback program. Not only does this imply notable excess cash generation, but it also suggests that management finds Simon's current valuation attractive.
Is SPG Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Wall Street’s view of Simon Property Group seems a bit more conservative. The retail real estate giant currently features a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on five Buys and eight Holds assigned in the past three months. At $150, the
average SPG stock forecast implies just 4.5% upside potential.
If you’re looking for the right analyst to guide your decisions in buying and selling SPG stock, look no further than Caitlin Burrows, who represents Goldman Sachs (
NYSE:GS
). Her performance over a one-year time frame has been outstanding, boasting an impressive average return of 34.17% per rating with a success rate of 100%. Click on the image below to learn more.
The Takeaway
SPG's strong post-COVID recovery, marked by increased occupancy levels and rising rental rates, has paved the way for a series of dividend increases. The company ended Fiscal 2023 on a high note, with record FFO/share and an improved payout ratio, signaling that the ongoing dividend growth streak will likely persist. This momentum, coupled with a robust credit profile and an attractive dividend yield, form a compelling investment case, reinforcing my bullish view of the stock.
Disclosure
March WTI crude oil (CLH24 ) this morning is up +0.94 (+1.22%), and Mar RBOB gasoline (RBH24 ) is up +2.41 (+1.02%). Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are trading higher, with crude posting a 1-1/2 week high and gasoline climbing to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude has support...
Philip Morris stock (
NYSE:PM
) has been traditionally held by dividend investors who seek a reliable and steady quarterly income. Displaying a noteworthy pattern in its trading history, the stock consistently finds robust support around the $90 mark. Investors have historically seized the opportunity to capitalize on the stock's above-average yield at these levels. With shares now trading below this key point after its Q4 results, I believe Philip Morris now presents a compelling entry point. Thus, I am bullish on the stock.
A Look at Philip Morris Stock's Trading Pattern
I usually don't pay attention to a stock's trading patterns, as I generally find little merit in technical analysis and arbitrary lines when assessing an investment opportunity. Nevertheless, I must admit that Philip Morris stock, in particular, features a very distinct trading pattern. Looking at the
stock's trading chart, you will quickly realize that the stock tends to see strong support below $90 and encounter strong resistance above $100.
I believe two forces are at play behind this consistent trading pattern. On the support front, there appears to be a magnetic attraction for investors when the stock dips below $90, driven by the allure of a hefty dividend yield (usually 5.8%+) at these levels. The robust dividend prospects of Philip Morris and notable yield form an enticing risk/reward proposition here.
Conversely, resistance kicks in around the $100 mark, where investors perceive heightened risk, leading to a less attractive risk/reward ratio. Philip Morris' investment landscape comes with notable risks, including regulatory uncertainties surrounding consumer health concerns, a declining population of smokers, and intense competition in the heated tobacco and oral nicotine markets.
In the present market scenario, it seems increasingly likely that the first force will come into play sooner rather than later, urging investors back into an accumulation phase below the $90 mark. The company's
Q4 results appeared to fall short of estimates at first glance, thus justifying the slight post-earnings sell-off. That said, I believe the numbers were rather strong, while management's promising outlook for 2024 should instill confidence in investors, further supporting the stock price at its current levels.
FY2024: Building Momentum on Strong FY2023 Results
Philip Morris concluded Fiscal 2023 on a robust note, propelling the company into a promising trajectory for Fiscal 2024. Despite encountering the customary challenges associated with diminishing demand for combustibles, the company's Heated Tobacco and Oral portfolios showcased remarkable growth, marking Fiscal 2023 as a record-breaking year for revenues and adjusted earnings.
Specifically, while Cigarette shipment volumes witnessed a marginal decline of 1.4% throughout the year, Heated Tobacco shipment volumes rose by 14.7%. Moreover, oral nicotine product shipment volumes saw an extraordinary uptick, skyrocketing by 606% compared to the previous year. This increase reflects Philip Morris' acquisition of Swedish Match in late 2022, which enriched its Oral category product portfolio.
Source: PM's Q4 & Full-Year Earnings Report
The result of notable shipment volume increases and strong pricing power led to net revenues for the year growing by 7.8% in constant currency to a new all-time high of $35.2 billion.
Philip Morris also posted robust profitability, a crucial aspect for a company primarily catering to income-oriented investors seeking increasing dividends. The company reported adjusted EPS of $6.01, marking a year-over-year increase of 11%. Furthermore, management anticipates the continued strength in the adoption of heated tobacco and oral nicotine products throughout 2024.
Projections indicate a 14% to 16% rise in Heated Tobacco shipment volumes, with an estimated shipment of approximately 520 million cans of nicotine pouches in the U.S. This represents a substantial year-over-year increase of 23%, considering the company shipped 421.1 million pouches the previous year. Based on these factors, the company expects net revenue growth of 6.5% to 8% on an organic basis, coupled with adjusted EPS ranging between $6.43 and $6.55, suggesting continued bottom-line growth.
Philip Morris' Dividend Case Shines Again
It appears that the Philip Morris dividend case is shining again, driven by the stock trading below $90 and the anticipation of Fiscal 2024 marking a year of record adjusted EPS. The former factor translates to an above-average yield for investors,
which currently hovers at 5.8%, while the latter factor suggests increased dividend coverage, thus improving dividend growth prospects.
It's worth noting that Philip Morris has a remarkable history of consistently increasing its dividend, dating back to its time as part of Altria (
NYSE:MO
), proudly boasting an unofficial (due to being spun-off) streak of 54 consecutive years of annual dividend increases.
Is PM Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Regarding Wall Street’s view on the stock, Philip Morris carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on seven Buys and three Hold recommendations assigned in the past three months. At $103.80, the average
Philip Morris stock price target suggests 16.4% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell PM stock, the most profitable analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is Gaurav Jain of Barclays (
NYSE:BCS
), with an average return of 11.01% per rating and a 63% success rate.
The Takeaway
Overall, I believe Philip Morris presents a compelling opportunity for investors, particularly income-oriented ones. The stock's distinct trading pattern, with robust support below $90 and resistance around $100, suggests it might be prime time to be bullish.
In the meantime, Philip Morris posted strong results in Fiscal 2023, while management suggests that the company is positioned for sustained momentum in 2024. With an anticipated rise in heated tobacco and oral nicotine products set to keep driving earnings growth and, thus, dividend growth, Philip Morris appears to be an attractive income pick, in my view.
Disclosure