Skip to main content

Nasdaq Stocks

Alphabet Stock (NASDAQ:GOOGL): AI Innovation Warrants a Higher Multiple

2 years 8 months ago
Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) stock has performed well but still hasn't been the most magnificent of the so-called Magnificent Seven group over the past year. The artificial intelligence (AI) rally is still going strong into 2024, and though Alphabet has big AI innovation projects (perhaps better than some rivals), the stock still hasn't been able to drive a great deal of multiple expansion in recent years. At writing, shares of GOOGL go for a very reasonable 22.2 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E), making it not only the "cheapest" Magnificent Seven stock but also a name that's not all too much pricier than where the stock normally trades. The modest valuation alone leaves me incredibly bullish on the stock as the company looks to put its foot on the gas with Gemini (formerly Bard). With Google recently pulling the curtain on its Gemini Ultra paid tier, the firm is essentially following in the footsteps of ChatGPT-owner OpenAI. Heck, Gemini Ultra may appear to outperform ChatGPT-4 in certain measures. However, you can't really dub either one as "better" for all uses, at least not yet. Gemini is every bit as intriguing as it is capable. But is there something fundamentally wrong with the Alphabet story as it stays on the cutting edge of AI innovation, just like many of its peers? There is one piece of hair on the GOOGL stock narrative. That lies in the high degree of uncertainty as to the fate of Google Search once AI potentially takes its place as the go-to "internet guru." For now, it's not yet known how many people will leave Google for greener pastures as new chatbots aim to grab a slice of share away from the previously untouchable search market. AI Is Both a Potential Disruptor and a Growth Lever for Google For now, it's probably a known fact that Google is leaning heavily on the strength of its search engine when it comes to sales and earnings. Given Google's heavy reliance on Search, I guess you could say a bear-case scenario exists that would cause some to view the stock as a bit of a value trap. Still, I think the GOOGL avoiders and skeptics are wrong to view the name as a value trap just because it's the heavyweight champ in Search with everything to lose as consumer-facing AI gets smarter and faster by the day. If anything, generative AI products on Google could make the whole experience of Googling that much better. If there's a company that can disrupt Google search, it's a Google-built AI chatbot. Additionally, Google chatbots are backed by one of the most enviable search engines (and data sets) on the planet. AI chatbot hallucinations (AI just making things up) remain one of the biggest problems with AI these days. As AI models — especially those created by Google — pay more emphasis on citing sources (and the reliability of said sources), we could see more links make good use of trusted websites with a thumbs up from Google. Knowing who and what to trust is vital, especially in the age of AI, when some users may just believe their chatbots without source-checking. Could it be that a search-based LLM (large language model) is only as good as the search engine behind it? Possibly. Only time will tell if search-backed LLMs become more popular than their data-trained ones that lack access to the most up-to-date information. And with "edge AI" (on-device AI) on the horizon, it's just too early to tell how things will pan out with AI models in the future. Personally, I see the most utility in a search-focused AI chatbot or a search engine that has a chatbot sitting off to the side, ready to assist upon request. Alphabet's Ability to Evolve Will be Put to the Test Even if Google Search is bound to take a hit in the coming years, I'm confident that Alphabet will be able to adapt as it looks to diversify its revenue stream with a handful of powerful AI products. Just as Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) was able to reinvent itself by shifting from the iPod (last generation's top seller) to the iPhone, Alphabet will be able to move on from Google Search to what's next as the industry tides shift. Today, Search represents a massive portion of the overall sales mix. But who knows what the breakdown will look like 10 years from now. My guess is that AI innovations will have grown into services that diversify the company beyond Search, perhaps putting it on the track of greater growth. Self-driving vehicle services (think Waymo), AI-assisted drug discovery, generative AI search tailored for physicians, Google Cloud with AI, Gemini, and other intriguing technologies are essentially options capable of contributing to the earnings mix over time. Indeed, they could turn Alphabet into less of a search company and more of a disruptive AI company. With that said, I view Alphabet stock as one of the cheapest AI stocks in today's overheated tech-driven market. Is GOOGL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? On TipRanks, GOOGL stock comes in as a Strong Buy. Out of 37 analyst ratings, there are 29 Buys and eight Hold recommendations. The average GOOGL stock price target is $164.56, implying upside potential of 11.5%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $141.00 per share to a high of $180.00 per share. The Takeaway Though GOOGL stock has been red-hot, surging nearly 60% over the past year alone, it still seems lukewarm when compared to some of its Magnificent Seven rivals. Whether Alphabet stock heats up on the back of AI to the magnitude of its peers remains to be seen. In any case, GOOGL stands out as a stock with GARP (growth at a reasonable price) written all over it. And it looks like a great pick-up, even if we are long overdue for a market correction in the first half of the year. Disclosure 

Crude Gains on Geopolitical Risks and Tight U.S. Gasoline Supplies

2 years 8 months ago
March WTI crude oil (CLH24 ) on Monday closed up +0.08 (+0.10%), and Mar RBOB gasoline (RBH24 ) closed up +2.78 (+1.19%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled higher, with gasoline climbing to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude has support from Middle Eastern geopolitical risks with the ongoing...

Beans Rally Out of Weekend

2 years 8 months ago
The soybean futures finished 4 ½ to 9 ½ cents higher across the front months. The March contract traded within a -1c to +13 ¼ cent range on the day. Soymeal futures closed $2.10 to $2.90 in the black. Soy oil futures finished the session 27 to 36 points in...

Sugar Prices Fall on Robust Brazil Sugar Production

2 years 8 months ago
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH24 ) on Monday closed down -0.46 (-1.92%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH24 ) closed down -6.50 (-0.98%). Sugar prices on Monday posted moderate losses. On the bearish side for sugar, StoneX last Monday raised its 2023/24 global sugar surplus estimate to...

Soybeans Rallying Double Digits

2 years 8 months ago
Midday bean futures are gaining as much as 13 cents with the board sitting at the high for the day. Soymeal futures are also 1.5% to 2.2% in the black so far. Soy oil futures are the complex’s weak link at midday with 17 to 22 point losses. USDA’s weekly...

Should You Pick UPS Stock After Its 10% Fall Last Year?

2 years 8 months ago
UPS (NYSE: UPS) recently reported its Q4 results, with revenues missing but earnings marginally ahead of the street estimates. The company’s outlook for 2024 sales also fell short of expectations, and the stock is down 8% so far this year. Despite its recent fall, we t

EYLD: This Emerging Markets ETF Yields Over 5% and Outperforms

2 years 8 months ago
There are many ways to invest in emerging markets, but the Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF ( BATS:EYLD ) provides investors with a differentiated way to gain exposure to them with a unique strategy (discussed further below). I’m bullish on EYLD based on its effective strategy that has beaten its benchmark over the years, its diversified portfolio, the inexpensive valuation of its holdings, and its attractive 5.4% dividend yield.  What Is the EYLD ETF’s Strategy? We recently covered the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF ( BATS:SYLD ), an attractive ETF that has quietly beaten the market over the past five years. EYLD is similar to SYLD in terms of its investing approach, but it adds an emerging markets angle to the formula.  According to fund sponsor Cambria, EYLD “focuses on companies in emerging market countries that are returning cash to shareholders through three attributes - dividends, buybacks, and net debt reduction.” Together, these three attributes combine to make up shareholder yield, which is calculated by adding these three factors (dividends, net share repurchases, and net debt reduction) and dividing them by a company’s market capitalization.  By investing in emerging markets companies with a high shareholder yield, EYLD gives investors differentiated exposure to emerging markets compared to its benchmark, the more general MSCI Emerging Markets Index. First and foremost, the stocks that EYLD owns are decidedly cheaper than the average stock in the emerging markets benchmark. As of December 31, the average price-to-earnings ratio for EYLD’s portfolio was just 8.0 versus an average price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 for the benchmark. As a reminder, both EYLD and the benchmark are considerably cheaper than U.S.-based stocks, as the S&P 500 ( SPX ) has an average valuation of 22.1 times earnings.  Lastly, focusing on companies with high shareholder yield may give EYLD exposure to stocks with better growth prospects than simply focusing on stocks with the highest dividend yields, and the focus on dividends and share buybacks may help the ETF soften the blow against market drawdowns.  How Does EYLD Build Its Portfolio? EYLD is an actively-managed ETF, and its portfolio management team engages in an extensive process to pick the 100 emerging market stocks that make it into its portfolio.  First, the fund’s managers start with a universe of emerging market stocks and then select those with market caps of over $200 million that meet certain liquidity and price thresholds.  They then select the top 20% of these stocks based on their shareholder yields, with attention to their valuations as well. Cambria uses valuation metrics like the price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio to select stocks it believes are trading below their intrinsic values. Cambria also screens out certain stocks based on quality and leverage metrics.  The portfolio managers then select the top 100 stocks from this group based on their combination of valuation and shareholder yield. The fund is rebalanced quarterly, and the portfolio management team begins the screening process again each quarter.  Benchmark-Beating Performance  This process has led to results that have beaten its benchmark, the plain vanilla MSCI Emerging Markets Index.  As of the end of the most recent quarter, EYLD produced an annualized three-year return of 3.6%, while the benchmark lost 4.7%, giving credence to Cambria's assertion that focusing on these companies paying dividends and buying back shares can help to mitigate market drawdowns. This return also beat that of the Morningstar Diversified Emerging Markets Category Average, which lost 3.9% on an annualized basis over the same time frame.  EYLD also beat the MSCI benchmark and the Morningstar Diversified Emerging Markets Category Average over a longer five-year time frame, with an annualized return of 8.3% versus annualized returns of 4.1% and 4.4% for the MSCI index and Morningstar category, respectively. Clearly, EYLD has beaten the returns of emerging markets as a whole, and an 8.3% return over a five-year time frame isn’t bad. However, it’s important to note that this return has still lagged that of the U.S. stocks. For example, as of the end of last quarter, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( NYSEARCA:VOO ) has returned 10.0% over the past three years and 15.7% over the past five, so investors would have been better off simply investing in the S&P 500. That said, it's not a bad idea for U.S. investors to diversify and gain exposure to cheaper stocks and new potential growth opportunities by investing abroad in emerging markets, and EYLD looks like an effective way to do this with returns that have consistently beaten emerging markets benchmarks.  What Is EYLD's Expense Ratio? EYLD charges an expense ratio of 0.66%. This means that an investor will pay $66 in fees on a $10,000 investment annually. While this isn’t cheap, it’s important to remember that this is an actively-managed fund, so it is going to be more expensive than most index funds. Furthermore, investing in international and emerging markets ETFs is typically more expensive than investing in domestic ETFs. And surprisingly, EYLD is actually a bit cheaper than that of the much larger iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ( NYSEARCA:EEM ), which simply invests in the aforementioned MSCI Emerging Markets Index benchmark that EYLD has beaten over the years. EEM charges an expense ratio of 0.70%, meaning that EYLD is the superior choice based on both performance and cost (albeit just a small difference in cost).  EYLD’s Portfolio With that said, what does EYLD’s portfolio look like? The fund holds 93 stocks, and its top 10 holdings make up just 19.3% of the portfolio, making this a diversified fund with little concentration risk. Below is an overview of EYLD’s top 10 holdings using TipRanks’ holdings tool.  As relatively obscure emerging markets stocks, many of these names will be unfamiliar to most U.S. investors. But as discussed above, they all return cash to shareholders, and they all pass through Cambria’s quality and leverage screens. They also collectively trade at relatively inexpensive valuations, as discussed previously. The ETF is well-diversified both geographically and across market sectors. As of the end of last quarter, technology is the sector that EYLD is most heavily invested in, with a weighting of 24.1%, followed by energy (17.4%), financials (15.1%), and materials (10.6%).  In terms of countries, 28.6% of the fund is invested in Taiwan, and 17.6% is invested in China. South Africa, South Korea, and India round out the fund’s top five markets with weightings of 15.7%, 12.6%, and 7.6%, respectively.  Yielding North of 5% Unsurprisingly, for a fund that focuses on dividends and share repurchases, EYLD packs a punch with its dividend and currently yields 5.4%. This yield is well above that of the aforementioned larger emerging market fund, EEM (currently yielding 2.7%), or the average yield for the S&P 500 (1.5%). It is also significantly higher than the yield offered by 10-year treasury bonds in the U.S. (4.2%), making EYLD an attractive income opportunity for investors.  The Takeaway: An Effective Way to Invest in Emerging Markets EYLD employs a differentiated and successful strategy of investing in emerging market stocks that produce a high shareholder yield. I’m bullish on this ETF as an effective way to gain exposure to emerging markets, as it has soundly beaten its more generalized emerging markets benchmark over the years (not to mention larger competitors like EEM). EYLD is also attractive thanks to the inexpensive valuation of its holdings, its diversified portfolio, and its 5.5% dividend yield. Disclosure

Wheat Futures Faded for Mixed Close on Monday

2 years 8 months ago
The wheat market started the week strong, but faded through the afternoon to close mixed across the domestic classes. Chicago SRW futures ended fractionally mixed but mostly lower. KC Wheat futures were down by 2 ¾ to 4 ¾ cents weaker at the close. The spring wheat futures ended the...

Corn Closed Off Highs but Still in Black

2 years 8 months ago
Monday’s corn session ended the day 1 to 1 ½ cents higher to start the week. March futures printed a -1 ¼ to +3 ¾ cent range. USDA’s weekly Inspections data had 880,074 MT of corn shipped during the week that ended 2/8. That was up from 645k MT the...

Mixed Close for Cattle Futures

2 years 8 months ago
Nearby fat cattle futures were 27 to 80 cents weaker at the Monday close. The feeder cattle market ended with triple digit gains of as much as $1.67 across the front months. There are still no deliveries issued against Feb cattle, as CME confirmed the oldest dated long is now...

Cotton Futures Close Mostly Red on Monday

2 years 8 months ago
The old crop cotton futures were 71 to 125 points lower for the close, though futures were 15 points off their lows for the day. New crop futures finished the day 5 to 8 points stronger on the day. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders...
Checked
10 minutes 1 second ago
This feed is responsible for generating the rss feed related to the topic Stocks
Subscribe to Nasdaq Stocks feed