Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP), an online travel company providing booking for hotel reservations, transportation, lodging, travel experiences, and restaurants, is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, February 15. We expect Tripadvisor’s
F5 Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FFIV), a network hardware, software, and services provider, recently reported its Q1 fiscal 2024 results (fiscal ends in September), with top and bottom beating the street estimates. The company reported revenue of $693 million and an adjusted profit of $3.
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2023 results on Tuesday, February 13, 2024 (after market close). We expect AIG to outperform the consensus estimates. The insurance giant posted mixed results in the last quarter, with revenues missin
Simon Property Group stock (
NYSE:SPG
) has unleashed
a barrage of dividend increases, reinforcing its bull case. The world's largest retail REIT continues to post improving financials in the aftermath of the pandemic, resulting in multiple dividend hikes recently. In fact, the company closed Fiscal 2023 with record FFO/share (funds from operations per share, a cash-flow metric used by REITs), surpassing its pre-pandemic levels for the first time.
I believe the ongoing momentum is set to persist. Therefore, I remain bullish on SPG stock.
Full Post-COVID Recovery Drives Dividend Increases
After overcoming the challenges posed by the pandemic, which greatly affected retail REITs, including Simon Property, the company has experienced a remarkable rebound in occupancy levels. This, coupled with increased rental rates, has propelled Simon Property to achieve a complete recovery. Thus, the company has successfully implemented a series of substantial dividend increases, showcasing its resilience and financial strength post-pandemic.
To begin with, I believe it all starts with retailers feeling a heightened sense of confidence in consumer spending over the past few quarters. It seems that retailers' optimism is being fueled by several indicators pointing towards a reassuring "soft-landing" scenario. These include low unemployment and easing inflation. As a result, SPG has seen a significant upswing in occupancy levels, which landed at 95.8% at year-end – a noteworthy increase of 90 basis points compared to Fiscal 2022.
Simultaneously, seizing the substantial demand for its properties, Simon has pursued increasing rental rates, resulting in a base minimum rent (BMR) of $56.82 at the end of the year -- a 3.1% uptick from the previous year. This is one of the highest BMRs I have ever seen a retail REIT achieve, underscoring Simon Property Group's high-quality property portfolio.
The combination of rising occupancy and record base minimum rent levels led to total revenues for the year coming in at $5.66 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Interestingly, this brings SPG remarkably close to its pre-pandemic Fiscal 2019 revenue of $5.67 billion, signaling a full post-pandemic recovery.
SPG's bottom-line results were even more impressive, with funds from operations per share (FFO/share) for the year landing at $12.51, up from last year's $11.95 and setting a new record from 2019's $12.37.
To me, it's very impressive that Simon Property's profitability has rebounded with such vigor, considering that most REITs out there are currently feeling the negative effects of multi-decade-high interest rates. Being the largest REIT in the space, however, Simon has managed to leverage its high-quality portfolio to maintain an attractive credit profile.
In particular, while the REIT's average cost of debt did increase from a low of 3.03% in 2021 to 3.70% in 2023, it still remains at very competitive levels. Further, Simon's weighted average yield to maturity stood at 7.2 years at the end of 2023, meaning the company is more or less insulated from potentially harmful refinancings in the medium term.
Source: SPG's Q4 Supplemental Information
Seeing such a strong credit position and FFO/share reaching new highs, management has felt confident about continuing its aggressive post-pandemic dividend raises. As you can see in the bar chart below, Simon slashed its dividends to manage the underlying crisis once the pandemic hit. However, nine hikes have occurred thus far, with the most recent increase to $1.95, bringing the quarterly rate one step closer to its pre-pandemic level of $2.10.
Source: SEC filings, Author
It's also worth noting that SPG's payout ratio has improved substantially, as its FFO/share hit new records in FY2023, but the dividend is still hovering below its 2019 levels. The company's FFO payout ratio was 60% last year, down from 69% in 2019. I believe this should encourage management to keep raising its dividend comfortably in the coming quarters, which, combined with its already decent dividend yield of 5.4%, forms a compelling dividend growth case.
Another factor signaling that SPG can easily afford further dividend increases is that the REIT recently announced a
$2 billion stock buyback program. Not only does this imply notable excess cash generation, but it also suggests that management finds Simon's current valuation attractive.
Is SPG Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Wall Street’s view of Simon Property Group seems a bit more conservative. The retail real estate giant currently features a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on five Buys and eight Holds assigned in the past three months. At $150, the
average SPG stock forecast implies just 4.5% upside potential.
If you’re looking for the right analyst to guide your decisions in buying and selling SPG stock, look no further than Caitlin Burrows, who represents Goldman Sachs (
NYSE:GS
). Her performance over a one-year time frame has been outstanding, boasting an impressive average return of 34.17% per rating with a success rate of 100%. Click on the image below to learn more.
The Takeaway
SPG's strong post-COVID recovery, marked by increased occupancy levels and rising rental rates, has paved the way for a series of dividend increases. The company ended Fiscal 2023 on a high note, with record FFO/share and an improved payout ratio, signaling that the ongoing dividend growth streak will likely persist. This momentum, coupled with a robust credit profile and an attractive dividend yield, form a compelling investment case, reinforcing my bullish view of the stock.
Disclosure
March WTI crude oil (CLH24 ) this morning is up +0.94 (+1.22%), and Mar RBOB gasoline (RBH24 ) is up +2.41 (+1.02%). Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are trading higher, with crude posting a 1-1/2 week high and gasoline climbing to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude has support...
Philip Morris stock (
NYSE:PM
) has been traditionally held by dividend investors who seek a reliable and steady quarterly income. Displaying a noteworthy pattern in its trading history, the stock consistently finds robust support around the $90 mark. Investors have historically seized the opportunity to capitalize on the stock's above-average yield at these levels. With shares now trading below this key point after its Q4 results, I believe Philip Morris now presents a compelling entry point. Thus, I am bullish on the stock.
A Look at Philip Morris Stock's Trading Pattern
I usually don't pay attention to a stock's trading patterns, as I generally find little merit in technical analysis and arbitrary lines when assessing an investment opportunity. Nevertheless, I must admit that Philip Morris stock, in particular, features a very distinct trading pattern. Looking at the
stock's trading chart, you will quickly realize that the stock tends to see strong support below $90 and encounter strong resistance above $100.
I believe two forces are at play behind this consistent trading pattern. On the support front, there appears to be a magnetic attraction for investors when the stock dips below $90, driven by the allure of a hefty dividend yield (usually 5.8%+) at these levels. The robust dividend prospects of Philip Morris and notable yield form an enticing risk/reward proposition here.
Conversely, resistance kicks in around the $100 mark, where investors perceive heightened risk, leading to a less attractive risk/reward ratio. Philip Morris' investment landscape comes with notable risks, including regulatory uncertainties surrounding consumer health concerns, a declining population of smokers, and intense competition in the heated tobacco and oral nicotine markets.
In the present market scenario, it seems increasingly likely that the first force will come into play sooner rather than later, urging investors back into an accumulation phase below the $90 mark. The company's
Q4 results appeared to fall short of estimates at first glance, thus justifying the slight post-earnings sell-off. That said, I believe the numbers were rather strong, while management's promising outlook for 2024 should instill confidence in investors, further supporting the stock price at its current levels.
FY2024: Building Momentum on Strong FY2023 Results
Philip Morris concluded Fiscal 2023 on a robust note, propelling the company into a promising trajectory for Fiscal 2024. Despite encountering the customary challenges associated with diminishing demand for combustibles, the company's Heated Tobacco and Oral portfolios showcased remarkable growth, marking Fiscal 2023 as a record-breaking year for revenues and adjusted earnings.
Specifically, while Cigarette shipment volumes witnessed a marginal decline of 1.4% throughout the year, Heated Tobacco shipment volumes rose by 14.7%. Moreover, oral nicotine product shipment volumes saw an extraordinary uptick, skyrocketing by 606% compared to the previous year. This increase reflects Philip Morris' acquisition of Swedish Match in late 2022, which enriched its Oral category product portfolio.
Source: PM's Q4 & Full-Year Earnings Report
The result of notable shipment volume increases and strong pricing power led to net revenues for the year growing by 7.8% in constant currency to a new all-time high of $35.2 billion.
Philip Morris also posted robust profitability, a crucial aspect for a company primarily catering to income-oriented investors seeking increasing dividends. The company reported adjusted EPS of $6.01, marking a year-over-year increase of 11%. Furthermore, management anticipates the continued strength in the adoption of heated tobacco and oral nicotine products throughout 2024.
Projections indicate a 14% to 16% rise in Heated Tobacco shipment volumes, with an estimated shipment of approximately 520 million cans of nicotine pouches in the U.S. This represents a substantial year-over-year increase of 23%, considering the company shipped 421.1 million pouches the previous year. Based on these factors, the company expects net revenue growth of 6.5% to 8% on an organic basis, coupled with adjusted EPS ranging between $6.43 and $6.55, suggesting continued bottom-line growth.
Philip Morris' Dividend Case Shines Again
It appears that the Philip Morris dividend case is shining again, driven by the stock trading below $90 and the anticipation of Fiscal 2024 marking a year of record adjusted EPS. The former factor translates to an above-average yield for investors,
which currently hovers at 5.8%, while the latter factor suggests increased dividend coverage, thus improving dividend growth prospects.
It's worth noting that Philip Morris has a remarkable history of consistently increasing its dividend, dating back to its time as part of Altria (
NYSE:MO
), proudly boasting an unofficial (due to being spun-off) streak of 54 consecutive years of annual dividend increases.
Is PM Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Regarding Wall Street’s view on the stock, Philip Morris carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on seven Buys and three Hold recommendations assigned in the past three months. At $103.80, the average
Philip Morris stock price target suggests 16.4% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell PM stock, the most profitable analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is Gaurav Jain of Barclays (
NYSE:BCS
), with an average return of 11.01% per rating and a 63% success rate.
The Takeaway
Overall, I believe Philip Morris presents a compelling opportunity for investors, particularly income-oriented ones. The stock's distinct trading pattern, with robust support below $90 and resistance around $100, suggests it might be prime time to be bullish.
In the meantime, Philip Morris posted strong results in Fiscal 2023, while management suggests that the company is positioned for sustained momentum in 2024. With an anticipated rise in heated tobacco and oral nicotine products set to keep driving earnings growth and, thus, dividend growth, Philip Morris appears to be an attractive income pick, in my view.
Disclosure
Joe Biden's advisers knew in 2020 that his age was an issue for Americans but they successfully painted him as a competent leader who would restore normalcy to the White House after Donald Trump's chaotic presidency.
Copper is a bellwether commodity that moves higher and lower with the state of the global economy. Copper is the leader of the nonferrous metals trading on the London Metals Exchange, and over the past months, its price has declined.
The tech sector has continued to stay hot so far this year. Though valuations may be a tad uncomfortable for those who've yet to punch their ticket, it has to be comforting that the Wall Street crowd still views many of the high flyers (like AVGO, CDNS, and NOW) as Strong Buys.
Therefore, in this piece, we'll look at
TipRanks' Comparison Tool to check in with those three impressive performers in the tech scene with generative artificial intelligence (AI) catalysts that could help them achieve more gains.
Broadcom (
NASDAQ:AVGO)
While most of the attention in the semiconductor scene may be focused on the two top AI chip firms, diversified chip play Broadcom has quietly rocketed higher. While the $592 billion chip giant may not be the bountiful dividend payer it once was, it still stands out as one of the higher-growth plays in the semiconductor scene, at least according to many on Wall Street.
To take it further, I view AVGO stock as sporting a more palatable valuation — 27.4 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) — versus many of its chip rivals. As such, I'm staying bullish on the stock but acknowledge that near-term turbulence could be in the cards.
It's hard to believe that the stock used to command a dividend yield north of 3-4%. After more than doubling (up 112% in the past year), the yield has compressed to 1.64%. Looking back, it's clear that Broadcom stock should never have fallen below $500 per share back in late 2022. Chalk that one as a misstep made by Mr. Market.
Despite the hot rally (or should I say melt-up) in the stock, JPMorgan (
NYSE:JPM
) analysts are
raging bulls on Broadcom stock this year, going as far as to call it the biggest AI chip play after Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
). This is partly thanks to Broadcom's "leadership position in AI-related products" such as high-end AI ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits) — a lower-power alternative to GPUs for AI acceleration.
Indeed, it's not just about GPUs when it comes to AI hardware. Arguably, ASICs could experience a boom of their own as more firms look to tailor their hardware for specific AI applications. Of course, ASICs can be pricier to build from scratch, but depending on the AI application, I view them as deserving a larger slice of the AI chip pie in the future. When it comes to AI chips, it's not all about GPUs. And Broadcom is a great way to play the customization chip trend as it looks to go after AI accelerators.
What Is the Price Target of AVGO Stock?
Broadcom stock is a Strong Buy, according to analysts, with 19 Buys and two Holds assigned in the past three months. The
average AVGO stock price target of $1,222.22 implies 2.35% downside potential.
Cadence Design Systems (
NASDAQ:CDNS)
Cadence Design Systems is another semiconductor play that's been incredibly hot lately, but not to the magnitude of Nvidia. Cadence is a take on the chip design side, a corner of the market that itself could be made more efficient through the incorporation of new AI models.
Undoubtedly, chip design is an incredibly complicated field with higher barriers to entry. You need hardware engineers who really know their stuff to make an AI chip that's up to standards. With AI thrown into the equation, the barriers could be lowered, perhaps drastically.
Indeed, if Cadence can get AI chip design right (early signs suggest that the company is, given the power of its Tensilica platform), there's no telling how much higher the stock could fly as it looks to widen its moat. All secular growth drivers considered, I view Cadence as one of the most exciting AI plays right now and am staying bullish.
The only knock on CDNS stock lies in its valuation, with shares going for 76.9 times trailing price-to-earnings, well above the semiconductor industry average of 45.3 times but lower than the application software industry average of 86.1 times. As an application software play with skin in the chip game, I'd argue that the multiple may not be as high as it seems, assuming Cadence can outpace its rivals in the chip design scene.
Nonetheless, after releasing its earnings early this week, CDNS stock took a 4% hit to the chin as the firm stepped forward with some
unimpressive Q1 guidance. Indeed, shares seemed priced for perfection ahead of the quarter. As shares pull back off their highs in response to the coming quarterly bout of weakness, perhaps dip buyers will finally have a chance to get into a name that has some very powerful secular growth drivers behind it.
What Is the Price Target of CDNS Stock?
Cadence stock is a Strong Buy, according to analysts, with three Buys assigned in the past three months. The
average CDNS stock price target of $320.88 implies 9% upside potential.
ServiceNow (
NASDAQ:NOW)
ServiceNow is a SaaS (software-as-a-service) workflow management firm that's also been off to the race since bottoming back in late 2022. The company isn't just melting up because its robust product is faring better again; investors are excited about the company's ability to cash in on the AI opportunity.
According to ServiceNow's chief operating officer, generative AI represents a $3 trillion opportunity for software firms. And ServiceNow wants a piece of the pie as it looks to funnel money into AI innovation to help its consumers save money and become more productive. Given this, I can't help but be bullish on the stock despite the hefty 91.8 times trailing P/E.
ServiceNow's chief executive officer, Bill McDermott, has also been upbeat about generative AI and his firm's growth prospects. Following the latest quarterly earnings beat, McDermott described AI as a "breakthrough moment." I think he's right. The AI boom seems to have already landed for ServiceNow, and there's no telling how much more impact it could have on future quarters.
The stock's expensive, but it's costly for a reason. Perhaps ServiceNow could be one of the more prominent software winners of the AI boom as it looks to experience its own Nvidia-like melt-up.
What Is the Price Target of NOW Stock?
ServiceNow stock is a Strong Buy, according to analysts, with 28 Buys and one Hold assigned in the past three months. The
average NOW stock price target of $851.26 implies 10% upside potential.
The Takeaway
The tech tailwind seems to be alive and well going into February. Though valuations may become stretched, it seems like generative AI could be enough of an earnings growth driver to help firms "catch up" to their now-higher multiples. Of the trio, analysts see the most upside (10%) in shares of NOW for the coming year. ServiceNow certainly does seem to be the best pick of the batch right now as McDermott and his team continue to work their magic.
Disclosure
In this piece, I
evaluated two EV stocks, NIO (
NYSE:NIO
) and BYD (
OTC:BYDDY
), using TipRanks' comparison tool to see which stock is the better buy. A closer look suggests a bearish view for NIO and a bullish view for BYD.
China-based NIO designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles in China and Hong Kong, the U.S., the U.K., and Germany. Meanwhile, BYD, also based in China, manufactures and sells EVs, rechargeable batteries, and select other electronics, including components for mobile devices.
Shares of NIO have plummeted 33% year-to-date, bringing their 12-month return to -41%. Meanwhile,
BYD stock is down 14.8% year-to-date, and shares are down 22.7% over the last year.
Those steep year-to-date declines are in line with the rest of the EV industry due to concerns about weaker-than-expected demand for electric vehicles and the ongoing price war. As a result, even Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) is
off 26% year-to-date, although the sector-wide drawdown could be offering up some buy-the-dip opportunities.
NIO is not profitable, so we'll compare its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to that of BYD to gauge their valuations against each other. For a separate comparable, we'll use Tesla instead of using the broader auto market, which is skewed due to extreme differences in the valuations of legacy automakers versus EV makers. Tesla is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42.7 and a P/S of 6.8.
NIO (NYSE:NIO)
At a P/S of 1.4, the cash-burning NIO is trading at a higher valuation than the profitable BYD. With no sign that profitability is in sight and even no plan for achieving it anytime soon, a bearish view looks appropriate for NIO, as there are plenty of better EV plays now with the sector's recent pullback.
On the one hand, NIO grew its vehicle
deliveries by 18.2% year-over-year in January and exceeded its guidance for fourth-quarter deliveries. However, on the other hand, a cursory comparison of other EV makers reveals how much faster most of them are growing compared to NIO. For example, Li Auto (
NASDAQ:LI
) grew its vehicle deliveries by 105.8% year-over-year in January, while XPeng (
NYSE:XPEV
) saw its EV deliveries jump 58%.
Then there's the issue of profitability. Morningstar (
NASDAQ:MORN
) analyst Vincent Sun said in September that NIO could become profitable in 2026, but the company hasn't offered any official plan to reach profitability. A key issue for the automaker is its margins, which are being pressured by the ongoing EV price war.
NIO expects its vehicle margins to reach roughly 15% by the fourth quarter, but its margin stood at 11% in the third quarter, down from 16.4% in the third quarter of 2022. Additionally, NIO's net income margin has remained in the -30% to -40% range for the last four years with no signs of improvement.
Its net income margin stood at -34.5% in 2020, improved to -29.3% in 2021, fell slightly to -29.6% in 2022, and slipped back to -39.2% for the last 12 months, which suggests profitability could be far off. The fact that NIO holds only a 2.1% sliver of the Chinese new-energy-vehicle (NEV) market adds further concern that it could be a long road ahead for the company — if it manages to survive at all.
The one unique thing about NIO is its
battery-swapping technology, but it's too early to say whether it will lead to success for the entire company.
What Is the Price Target for NIO Stock?
NIO has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on six Buys, four Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. At $10.55, the
average NIO stock price target implies upside potential of 85.1%.
BYD (OTC:BYDDY)
At a P/E of 34.8 and a P/S of 0.9, BYD is trading at a steep discount to Tesla — even though it unseated Elon Musk's wildly successful EV maker as the world's largest seller of electric vehicles by delivery count. Thus, a bullish view seems appropriate for BYD, especially considering that the company is undervalued without even considering the non-EV parts of its business.
In 2023, BYD saw its retail sales of new-energy vehicles in China jump 50% year-over-year to 2.7 million units, giving it a 35% share of the Chinese NEV market. Meanwhile, Tesla holds only a 7.8% share of the Chinese market, although its vehicle sales in China grew a perfectly respectable 37.4% year-over-year to more than 600,000 units.
BYD also has its sights set on international markets, as it delivered a record 36,174 vehicles outside China in January. Of course, all of these sales trends are positive for BYD, even if the stock takes a breather temporarily.
One last thing to note about BYD is that this company has been around for many years, having evolved into an EV company that also makes other electronics. As such, BYD has enjoyed some stellar long-term gains in its stock price, which is up 284% over the last five years and 358% over the last 10, making it an attractive buy-and-hold position for the long term.
What Is the Price Target for BYDDY Stock?
BYD has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on two Buys and no Hold or Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. At $35.50, the
average BYD stock price target implies downside potential of 24.4%.
Conclusion: Bearish on NIO, Bullish on BYDDY
It's no secret that investors are worried about the state of the EV market. High interest rates hit EV sales hard, but it's starting to look like rates could start coming down at some point this year. Additionally, any dependence on near-term sales trends for EVs is simply short-sighted. Although the transition may take longer than previously expected, the recent pullback in the stock prices of some EV makers presents an attractive buy-the-dip opportunity.
However, when comparing BYD and NIO, it's clear that BYD is a Chinese juggernaut that's too cheap to ignore, while NIO looks like a cash-burning, ultra-risky speculative play on battery-swapping technology. If NIO even survives, it could be quite some time before we start to see signs of success peering around the corner.
Disclosure
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